After graduating from college, my first car was the Toyota Corolla hatchback. The engine is a well-designed mechanical device. I hope that I can say the same to the body panel, it will soon look like rusty Swiss cheese; these holes are expanding year by year.
As a result of this incident, automakers began using galvanized steel - body panels "hot dip" in a molten bath of corrosion-resistant zinc.
However, the car companies in the two most popular countries in the world did not get the memo. At least until recently.
result? This is a huge bullish stampede event when many of the world's leading analysts expect it to enter the zinc market...
彭博' S from
The recent title is "China's rusted cars will maintain the top metal of the rally in 2016", all of which illustrates this. Since the beginning of this year, the zinc price has also increased by 60%.
Only about one-third of the 19 million cars and trucks built in China last year were made of galvanized steel.
In India, the situation is roughly the same. Consumers bought a record 2 million cars last year; according to the Mumbai Institute of Technology in India, only about 20% are made of galvanized steel.
When you consider the car sales forecast for the two countries before 2020 [China is 24 million, India is 5 million], it is a lot of zinc.
Don't look now, but...
My point is not to run out and buy zinc mine stocks. It should be noted that commodity demand is often achieved in the way that people expect, until the price rise makes it too obvious.
Look at what happened to nickel.
The Philippines is a major supplier of primary nickel ore. The new Duterte government, which took office this summer, is "reviewing" more than 30 mines in the country, possibly withdrawing some of them due to suspected violations of environmental regulations.
This is not entirely "love", but it certainly helps to promote the continued promotion of nickel prices. Analysts at UBS Group AG believe that nickel prices will rise another 25% next year [20% so far this year].
Of all the major industrial metals, copper is one of the most interesting products. The price of red metal has barely changed throughout the year. It has fallen by 50% since 2011.
However, Pan Pacific Copper, Japan's largest producer, believes prices will rise 40% to about $7,000 per ton by 2020. Citigroup recently made similar predictions. why?
It all depends on the relationship between supply and demand.
Despite the slowdown in economic growth in China, the world's largest copper consumer, the demand for copper remains strong.
But copper supply is another matter entirely.
At the end of last year, Glencore, one of the world's largest copper miners, decided to mine its largest mine in Africa, with a production of 400,000 tons in the global market. In Chile, the world's largest copper supplier, the State Copper Council announced a significant cut in investment by 2025, canceling eight mining development projects worth about $23 billion.
Now you can see the sources of these copper price forecasts. At Citigroup, analysts believe there is a growing gap between copper supply and demand. In the above-mentioned Pan Pacific Copper Company, the company's president said, "Because there is no new mine supply, production will not be able to keep up with demand – no price reaches $7,000 [per ton]."
The current price of copper is less than $5,000 per ton, which provides a lot of room for potential profits - and another reason is to pay close attention to such "most annoying" goods.
Orignal From: End of goods
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