Some foreseeable market observers have recently announced that the bond market, rather than the stock market, is in the midst of a bubble, and many of our other leisure observers are scratching their heads.
The first thing investors learn is the importance of bond interest rates in setting the background for all investments, and most, if not all, experts suggest that we buy stock markets and now use low bond rates as the main reason, pointing out bond rates. With such low facts, stocks are the only option for investors to seek income. Then, if the main pillar supporting the stock market now is the low bond interest rate, how can the bond market be in a bubble and the stock market not? In addition, if the bond bubble bursts and interest rates rise, bonds will not become more reliable and cause stock investors to flee the stock market. It seems that the stock and bond markets are now inextricably linked, and both are very frothy.
Experts believe that history since 1980 suggests that bond yields [more specifically 10-year Treasury bonds] should be higher than stock market yields [or more specifically, S&P 500 index prices/benefits] Countdown] [P / E] multiple]. Today, this relationship is reversed and stock returns [about 4%] are higher than bond yields [2.25%]. For those experts who believe that bond yields should be higher [meaning bond prices are in a bubble and need to fall] or stock prices are too low [and should rise], assume historical relationships should be consistent.
However, this historical relationship may no longer be appropriate. Most observers believe that the market and the economy have changed considerably since the 1980s, although this long-term relationship no longer applies. The last two decades of the last century were characterized by high economic growth and moderate inflation, both of which have been severely lacking since the beginning of this century. Perhaps the future stock return should be higher than the bond yield, which is consistent with the long-term relationship, which is actually the normal state during the 85-year period from 1871 to 1956. [Compared with bond yields over the past 150 years, dividend yields provide a model similar to stock returns, in fact dividend yields are actually higher than bond yields for most of the time period.] Perhaps this indicates stocks The yield should be higher than the bond yield. Today, the stock market and the bond market are all in the bubble!
More convincing evidence suggests that the stock market is undoubtedly in the bubble sector. The stock market value is driven by earnings and P/E multiples. The previous analysis shows how low bond interest rates directly support P/E multiples. Less obvious is that low bond yields also indirectly affect the company's earnings in many ways. Low interest rates enable leveraged companies to borrow heavily while minimizing interest payments. The same low interest rates allow companies to borrow back unimportant capital to buy back their stocks, reduce their outstanding shares, and then exaggerate their wages. The low interest rate environment also brings profit margins to record levels. Investors borrow up to 50% of the capital needed to buy stocks, thereby stimulating demand for stocks and pushing up prices. Imagine how rising interest rates will have a negative impact on buybacks and margin purchases. If the bond interest rate is too low, then the price of the stock based on these low interest rates is obviously too high!
Given all of this and the fact that it is gradually changing and "designing" earnings through the use of non-GAAP [non-GAAP], this tends to increase corporate earnings, and it is clear that the stock market has been pushed to an unnaturally high level.
Of course, experts know all this, so how can they conclude that the bond market is in a bubble and the stock market is not? When these bubbles finally broke out, it is not difficult to imagine two markets, and virtually all financial markets will suffer serious consequences.
Orignal From: This bond market bubble created a bubble in all stock markets
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